'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
While several key economic legislations, including insurance and PFRDA bills, are pending in Parliament, the government had to recently put on hold its decision to open the multi-brand retail sector to foreign investors.
The country's forex reserves touched a record high of $675 billion on August 2, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The previous all-time high for the kitty was $670.857 billion on July 19 this year, and the last reported reserve was $667.386 billion as on July 26. Das said overall, the country's external sector "remains resilient" as indicated by an improvement in key indicators.
Strategic affairs experts express concern over US President Donald Trump's tariffs on India, his 'bullying tactics,' and increasing attempts to hyphenate New Delhi with Islamabad, signaling a potential shift in the bilateral relationship.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday said regulations should not create unintended barriers to financial inclusion while emphasising that the impact of regulations on individuals and businesses should be considered.
'If all goes well, we may well hit or even surpass the forecast growth rate.'
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
Donald Trump's tariffs, meant as political punishment, have avoided the predicted chaos, lifting US growth, weakening rivals, and letting him claim victory in a resilient global economy, observes T T Ram Mohan.
Outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Tuesday that restoring inflation-growth balance is the most important task ahead of the central bank. Addressing a press conference on his last day as the central bank chief, Das said his successor will have to navigate the changing world order, effectively deal with cyber threats, and focus on harnessing new technologies.
In the Sensex pack, Hero MotoCorp, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Auto, Maruti and M&M were the top gainers, spurting up to 2.66 per cent.
All members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- Shashanka Bhide, Ashima Goyal, Jayanth R Varma, Mridul K Saggar, Michael Debabrata Patra and Shaktikanta Das -- had unanimously voted to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent after the three-day meet of the panel earlier this month. Further, except Varma, other members voted to continue with the accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis and continue to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target going forward. Varma expressed reservations on this part of the MPC resolution, according to the minutes.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
India's GDP growth is likely to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 because the pent-up demand accumulated during Covid has exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. About the global economy, the IMF said the battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries.
India's pharmaceuticals and medical devices industries are still hopeful that trade negotiations with the US could cut a fairer deal for both sides, after President Donald Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff rate on India on a social networking platform without divulging the finer details.
The country's biggest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki India, has raised concerns about the continuing slide in small car sales.
The central bank's next monetary policy review is scheduled for April 5. It had kept the policy rate unchanged in its February meeting on fears of inflation.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
India will oppose the World Bank funding to Pakistan next month, arguing that Islamabad has used such funds in the past to procure arms and ammunitions. India previously lobbied against the IMF extending a USD 2.3 billion assistance to Pakistan earlier this month, presenting evidence of Pakistan's misuse of funds for military purposes. India feels that Pakistan has failed to act on terror emanating from its territory and has been diverting funds from multilateral agencies to buy arms and ammunition.
All six members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) expressed caution over food inflation during the December review, while two external members warned about high real interest rates as headline inflation approaches its target of 4 per cent. The central bank continued to maintain the status quo on both the repo rate and the stance in the December monetary policy. India's retail inflation in November rose to 5.5 per cent - its fastest pace in three months - due to higher food prices.
US President Donald Trump has announced a 25 per cent plus tariff on India from Aug 1. Trump, describing India as a "friend", said the US has done relatively "little business" with the country because of its high tariffs.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday slashed the growth projection to 7 per cent for the current fiscal from the earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent, citing aggressive tightening of monetary policies globally and moderation in demand. Unveiling the fifth monetary policy for this fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank remains committed to price stability to put the country on the sustained path of growth.
Musk said on Friday that he believes India-US ties are "trending positive" and that he favours an enhanced trade partnership between the two nations.
The United States announced a 25 per cent tariff on India as the White House released an expansive list of duties that Washington, DC will impose on exports from countries around the world.
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
With the setting of MPC, the interest rate setting powers would move from RBI Governor to the panel.
The government is likely to name a successor to Rajan sometime this month
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) state of the economy report observed that any durable alignment of headline retail inflation with the target of 4 per cent could recommence in the second half of FY25 and sustain until numbers closer to the target are seen during the course of FY26, dashing hopes of any reduction in the policy repo rate in the current financial year. The report, authored by RBI staffers, including Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Patra, said though headline numbers may fall in July and August due to base effect, it is likely to reverse in September.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday marginally lowered its inflation projection for the current financial year to 5.1 per cent, as Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank's monetary policy actions are yielding the desired results. In April, the Reserve Bank had estimated the consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation at 5.2 per cent during the fiscal 2023-24. CPI inflation fell sharply to 4.7 per cent in April 2023, from 6.4 per cent in February, on the back of favourable base effects, with softening observed across all the three major groups.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said people are finding current interest rates "very stressful" and urged banks to make them affordable. Speaking at an event organised by State Bank of India, the finance minister said that at present, India requires industry to ramp up and invest in new facilities, and added that lowering lending rates can help achieve the "Viksit Bharat" aspiration.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan had set up a committee to review the monetary policy framework.
India has opposed the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) proposal to extend fresh loans of USD 2.3 billion to Pakistan, citing concerns that the funds could be misused for financing state-sponsored cross-border terrorism. India abstained from voting at the IMF meeting, expressing concerns about Pakistan's track record and the possibility of debt financing being misused for terrorism. The IMF took note of India's statements and its abstention from the vote. India's opposition comes at a time when military conflict between India and Pakistan has intensified following a terrorist attack in Kashmir.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
N Chandrasekaran, chairman of Tata Consumer Products, has said in the company's annual report for FY25 that India remains one of the bright spots of economic growth amid a volatile global environment. He said India's long-term growth was underpinned by strong demographic and economic fundamentals as well as structural reforms.
Pointing out that loosening cycle of monetary policy by RBI began only in October, Moody's said, it might not have led to an immediate rebound in domestic consumption. However, the RBI on Thursday stated that monetary measures taken by it were 'appropriate'.
Shigeru Ishiba is expected to prioritise strengthening Japan's military capabilities and fostering deeper international partnerships, particularly with India, with whom Japan shares significant strategic interests, explains Dr Rajaram Panda.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
Wholesale price based inflation declined to a 3-month low of 1.89 per cent in November on cheaper food items, and experts predicted a 0.25 per cent interest rate cut by the RBI in the policy review in February. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.36 per cent in October 2024. It was 0.39 per cent in November, last year. In August, 2024, it was 1.25 per cent.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances